Slope Parity

From 1945 to 1977, the income of every U.S. economic class rose at roughly the same rate or “slope”. Since 1977, the middle- and lower-class “slope” has flattened dramatically, while the top 5% has continued upward on the same slope. It’s easier to see on a graph:

CBPP1CBPP2Since 1977, our country has drifted into a dangerous socio-economic slope disparity. When the disparity gets bad enough — and I think we’re very close — it leads to social instability and unrest. Keep in mind, income growth parity isn’t a measure of relative wealth (this isn’t a “class envy” or “Marxist wealth redistribution” problem — I’ll discuss wealth accumulation later in this essay), but rather a measure of a nation’s fundamental structural integrity — the foundational fiscal policy on which a healthy nation is built — economic policy that can make or break a strong and vibrant middle class.

We have a profound structural problem. Economic historians call the last 35 years “the great divergence”. Income growth parity is a cornerstone of U.S. liberty and justice for all. Without reasonable parity, a once-thriving middle-class is gutted, creating a microscopically tiny super-wealth-class that eventually assumes majority ownership of a nation (aka, oligarchy) while all others suffer.

MiddleClass_6The period 1945-1977 saw the rise of a strong and vibrant American middle-class. But since 1977, the U.S. middle class (income within 50% of median) has shrunk more than 16% (see chart). During this same period, a tiny number of Americans (the infamous 1%) boosted real income by nearly 300%. Why did this happen?

There are only two possible conclusions:

1.) Since 1977, 95% of Americans have grown increasingly lazy and stupid, or

2.) Since 1977, our ECONOMIC SYSTEM (fiscal policy) has been designed and engineered to suck wealth out of the bottom 99% and deliver it into the hands of the 1%.

The correct answer is #2. If anyone thinks differently, please do explain. Here’s a graph from Jacob Hacker at Yale showing what the 95% has given up for the top 5% since 1977:

lossgain_0Why did this happen? What structurally changed between the 1945-1977 period and 1977-2013 period? Why has the middle-class been gutted? And why does it continue to shrink — slowly and effectively killing the heart and soul of America?

The most obvious change is our tax code. Between 1945 and 1977, progressively wealthier people were asked to pay progressively higher U.S. taxes, with massive windfall income being taxed the highest. There were no exceptions to this policy. You earned more, you paid more:

average_effective_federal_tax_ratesA highly progressive tax rate was used to adjust all income slopes into social parity. And it worked elegantly. Massive wealth was still created at the top, but not at the expense of the middle class. Today we’re accelerating the creation of massive wealth at the very top, but we’re doing it at the expense of all other socio-economic classes. We are killing ourselves with an imbalanced zero-sum disparity.

Another fiscal policy that kept the country in slope-parity is capital gains and dividend tax rate. Before 1977, the average capital gain was taxed around 30-35%. Today it is 20-25%. From 1945 to 1977, dividends were taxed around 70-90%. Today it’s 20%.

Here’s the problem. Very few American’s below the top 15% earners enjoy significant capital gains or dividend income. Ultra-low CG and D tax rates benefit only the very top earners. If these huge CG and D tax reductions to the ultra-wealthy truly “trickled down” we would have a strong and vibrant middle-class today. But these massive gifts to the ultra-wealthy are not trickling down. They have not been trickling down for 35 years. Alas, for the last 35 years, wealth has been trickling UP from the 99% to the 1%.

FICA and Social Security payments are another area where the ultra-wealthy could pay a higher share, perhaps a flat percentage on all income, no cap, rather than a $100K cap.  Mitt Romney pays 14% Federal tax on over $20 million income, yet I am paying 21% on a tiny fraction of that. Something is terribly wrong with this picture.

Our 1945-1975 tax code understood the social necessity of true progressive taxation. Everyone paid on a progressive scale, including the top 1%. Today, our highly revised tax code has gutted the very heart of American prosperity — the middle class. Today, the 99% continue to pay a progressively higher tax as their income goes up, while the 1% is now playing under different rules a REgressive tax system where the wealthiest are taxed at much lower percentage rates. Unlike the middle class, the top wealthiest derive most of their income from Capital Gains and Dividends — which are taxed at a far lower rate than the normal income sources of the middle classes (wages, interest, small-business income, rental income, retirement distributions, farm income, etc.).

Since these profound changes to our tax code in the 1970s, our fiscal policy has caused a redistribution of greater and greater wealth into the hands of fewer and fewer people. In 1976, the 99%-class possessed 80% of American wealth. Very healthy! Since 1976, around 1/2 percent of American wealth has been leaving the 99% every year, sucked up by the 1%. Today, the 99%-class possesses just 64% of American wealth, and by 2020 that will likely be reduced to 60%. A 20% reduction of middle-class wealth in 40 years, transferred into the hands of the 1%.

wealth disparity over time USAWealth distribution vs. national health is a well known econometric. There are a basket of countries that represent the healthiest nations on the planet today, by just about any metric (GINI, capital reinvestment stores, well-being indices, etc.). They are: Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc.. Their 1% possess in the range of 25-28% of national wealth, similar to the USA in the 1950-1975 period.

The wealth ratio of a nation is never an accident. Whether by omission or commission, money policy determines the wealth ratios of a nation. In its role of properly aggregating wealth accumulation, good policy can overcome any external force, such as inflation or money velocity. Good government adjusts fiscal and monetary policy to adapt to current economic conditions, with the primary goal of maintaining a healthy wealth ratio balance (while properly funding the government), which appears to be somewhere in the 20-30% range.

Stated simplistically, if fiscal policy engineers too much wealth out of the hands of the ultra-wealthy, you undermine the stores of capital required for smart, fundamental growth that creates jobs for the 99% (the extreme case is Marxist economic theory). Conversely, if you engineer too much wealth flowing into the 1%, you undermine the foundation of a healthy nation, which is the middle class. You want to find that (elusive and debatable) maxima point that balances 1% wealth while maintaining strong and vibrant middle-classes.

Today, we’ve grossly overshot that maxima. We know this from of a number of markers:

  • 99% wealth has fallen dramatically for 35 years
  • The middle-class has shrunk 18% during this same time
  • More people are living in poverty today than at any time since they started keeping census data in 1959
  • 1 in 5 Americans are now on food stamps – more than at any time since the program started
  • Fully HALF of all American children will be on food stamps before their 18th birthday – more than at any time in history
  • 77% of families are living paycheck-to-paycheck, with little or no savings to cover emergencies
  • Household savings rates are today at their lowest moving average in modern U.S. history (this isn’t due to low interest rates — compare with China’s low interest rates but historically high household savings)
  • American middle-class debt ratios are at their highest point in modern history
  • From 1945-1980, America had the highest GDP per capita in the world, by far. Today, we’re #13, and falling
  • Since 1975, while the 99% has been falling deeper and deeper into economic despair, the 1% has accumulated more of the U.S. wealth pie than at any time since before the Great Depression. In fact, some have noted that our current economic disparity looks identical to the disparity that (in part) triggered the Great Depression. See this graph:
  • plutocracy

The latest Pew studies show that a vastly larger number of people consider themselves low-mid or lower class compared with 20 years ago. Critics argue that our lower class has it “better than ever”. But caloric intake and flat-screen TVs are not primary indicators of wealth, prosperity, or well-being. An historically balanced (maxima) distribution of core wealth is the key indicator of free-market well-being, and by that metric the USA has become a sick and imbalanced society. And getting sicker year by year.

We need the political will to bring our social and fiscal policy back into slope parity. We need the political will to reverse engineer the dangerous and excessive hoard of 1% wealth back into the hands of our 99%. But our government today looks more like a corporatocracy than a representative democracy. Elected officials today pass more fiscal policy benefiting a tiny oligarchy than “we the people”.  Those with the most to lose from true progressive taxation are the same people with the highest influence on our lawmakers.

Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels wrote, “Senators appear to be considerably more responsive to the opinions of affluent constituents than to the opinions of middle-class constituents, while the opinions of constituents in the bottom third of the income distribution have no apparent statistical effect on their senators’ roll call votes.” Desperately needed middle-class fiscal changes will not happen without a serious grass-roots movement of the people.

Profoundly imbalanced income growth slopes are tearing this country’s “social contract” into shreds. The USA now has less slope equality than Kenya or Yemen. With the exception of Romania, no developed country has more kids below their country’s poverty line than the USA — while more and more of American wealth is being vacuumed up a tiny number of individuals.

Throughout history, it’s normal and expected that powerful minorities will control a sizable percentage of wealth. But Americans have not seen wealth disparity and income growth disparity this out of whack since before the Great Depression. And our disparity continues to grow:  One family of six people are now worth more than the bottom 40% of the American population combined.

As wealth disparity and income-slope disparity continue to grow, it could literally trigger the end of American liberty as we know it. And in many ways, wealth disparity has already eroded much of our core middle-class foundation. Without a strong middle class, a nation soon becomes plundered by an increasingly powerful plutocracy.

So why aren’t we hearing this profoundly important data on mainstream news outlets? Well ….. there’s a problem. Over 90% of national news is controlled by just six corporations, and those six corporations have only one goal:  to maximize advertising revenue and shareholder wealth. They maximize revenue via addictive polarization using divisive political programming which promotes and sustains an unhealthy sense of anger, distrust, fear (of the other side), and blame. Left wing vs. right wing. Us against them. Bad guys and good guys. Political identity is a powerful drug in the hands of the world’s most skillful manipulators.

These six news outlets are owned almost entirely by 1% interests — the same people and organizations who have disproportionately increased their wealth on the backs of the middle-class for the last three decades. These six outlets go out of their way to assure that the middle-class (their target market) does not hear any reporting about these massive wealth and income-slope imbalances that are destroying our country and our liberties. The middle-class will continue to be manipulated with left-wing and right-wing identity polarization, while politicians on both sides of the aisle continue voting for fiscal policies that further enrich the 1% by sucking more and more wealth from the 99%.

The late Robert Feinman wrote, “We in the US need to decide if we are going to slip into an inefficient oligarchy and risk civil unrest, or redirect our resources and wealth into more equitable avenues. No society is perfectly egalitarian, but we … are probably near an economic tipping point. How we deal with the coming challenge is up to us.”

Other Reading: Return of the Oppressed, Peter Tuchin
Related Links: Wealth for Common Good | Fair Economy

Start around 10:00 into video for a psychologist’s perspective:


The Holodeck On Your Head: A Virtual Media Studio

I was asked to give the Closing Keynote for the 2013 Audio Engineering Conference this week at Javits in NYC. The convention drew over 18,000 attendees. For my topic I selected “The Future of Audio Production 2020-2050″.

Added:  CNET reported here.

I spoke about the demise of “physical” post-production. The lecture was accompanied by around forty proprietary research graphs, not included here. By 2050, perhaps even as early as 2030, I showed (with extensive data) that most media post-production will be performed in virtuality, where every functional piece of equipment — every knob, fader, switch, and patch point — will be visible and controllable entirely in virtual space. This paradigm will encompass film editing, sound and music editing, game production, mixing, mastering, and just about any type of aural-visual post-production and delivery.

By 2040, we’ll have mostly abandoned the mouse. Physical touchscreens will be largely obsolete. There will be far fewer physical media objects — such as external audio monitors, keyboards, trackballs, personal desktop video monitors, and so forth. Save for a quiet room, a comfortable chair, and innocuous motion trackers, the physical “production studio” will largely be a thing of the past. Certainly, a number of “legacy hardware rooms” will still exist, but they will be dying curiosities.

Bottom line: we have moved from a desktop-culture to a hand-held culture, and now we are moving from a hand-held culture to a head-worn culture. Physicality will be replaced with increasingly sophisticated head worn immersion devices. Most of these basic changes will be well in place by 2035. And by 2050, head-worn audio and visual fully-spherical realism will be nearly indistinguishable from real-space. Audio will be mixed for a true three-dimensional sound space (in fact, we are doing this now). Visual production will require three axes of reality (also happening today).

During this transition, perhaps the only remaining piece of CEH (clunky external hardware) will be sub-woofers, which cannot be emulated with a headworn device. By 2025, today’s emerging object-oriented 3D audio environments (Atmos, Neo, Auro, etc.) will be commodity delivery formats. By 2025-2030, head motion tracking and hand gestural tracking will also be inexpensive, matured commodities.

A single desktop computer in 2050 will be equivalent to roughly 10 billion human brains working in parallel, so media processing power is no longer a bottleneck. The 2050 Internet will be hosting roughly 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bits of data, per second (10 sextillion bits/s).

Production and post-production studios of 2030-2040 will give us our familiar working tools:  mixing consoles, outboard equipment, patch bays, audio and visual monitors … or their real space DAW equivalents. The difference is that all of this “equipment” will live in virtual space. When we don our VR headgear, anything we require for media production is there “in front of us” with lifelike realism. It’s a Holodeck on your head. Headworn reality.

Matured gestural control (2030-2035) allows us to reach out and control anything in the production chain. Efficiency will be improved with scalable depth-of-field. Haptic touch (emulated physical feedback) will add an extra layer of realism (2030-2040), but it’s probably not necessary for media production emulation. Anything in the virtual room can be changed with one voice or gestural command. Don’t like the sound of that Neve 8086 console? Install the Beatles EMI Abbey Road console. A ten second operation.

But why stop there? Let’s dream bigger. Call up a complete AI symphony orchestra that fills your immersive vision stage. Call up a great concert hall (let’s try the Concertgebouw. Hmm, that’s a little too swimmy. Let’s try Boston Symphony Hall). Add a 200 voice choir. Add Yo Yo Ma soloing with his carbon fiber cello. You’re there in front, conducting and refining the orchestra with gestural and voice commands, making refinements to the score and performance, until it becomes exactly as you want it. We achieve a complete Virtual Audio Workstation, or more precisely a Virtual Media Workstation which can be tailored to fit any creative production goal.

DAW SlideThe future of audio, music, film making, game design, TV, industrial apps  –  any creative media construction, from inception to post-production — becomes truly boundless and limited only to our imagination. Personally, I dream about being able to think of music directly into a recording system:  a non-invasive brain-machine interface. It turns out that this dream is moving from science fiction to reality (link, link, link). And if we assume a two-year doubling period for cortex sensing resolution, by the early 22nd century our non-invasive brain interfaces will be about 20 orders of magnitude more powerful than today.

But will that give us the ability to think music and visual art directly into our computers? Or does it simply blur the line between our brains and our computers, so that the entire paradigm of augmented thinking and collective knowledge is radically shifted? At that point … when we have billions of devices globally networked, and each device is trillions of times smarter than the combined intelligence of all humanity … what will our species become? What will our collective thought processes look like?

Personally, I think these kinds of paradigm-shifting social questions are coming sooner than we may realize. And I think there’s both great promise and great risk with the technologies that are emerging. Or as my wife reminds me before my lectures, teach them that the heart is always more important than our technology. Or as Bryan Stevenson said, “we will not be judged by our technology, intellect, or reason. Ultimately, the character of a society will be judged not by how they treat the powerful, but by how they treat the poor.”

Nevertheless, somewhere in the future, we will create human-to-machine interfaces that respond and adapt directly to our personal imagery and creative ideas; so that one day just about anything we can imagine will become our art.

Millennia Media, FPC

Holodeck


Lessons From the Dying

Hospice worker Kathleen Taylor shares insights from the dying that remind us how to live now.

“People at the end of their lives are incapable of bullshit” – “at the end, people become these pure, distilled, crystallized, authentic versions of who they are” – “people talk about things they’ve never talked about before – they will reconsider things they’ve been certain about their entire lives – they do brave stuff like change their mind, and apologize, and forgive, they express love where it needs to be expressed, they find joy in the smallest moments” – “other things fall away at the end:  being right, being guilty, being busy, being self-conscious, being important…”

The number one regret of the dying? “I wish I had had the courage to live a life true to myself, and not to what others expected of me”. “Dying people teach us that it’s never too late to shed what is false, and to become who we truly are”.

“Take a hint from how people live their last days. If you really want to live every day like it’s your last, then do some introspection, discover and express your amazing uniqueness in the world, stop bullshitting, make your life story about how you truly are, because I believe the world needs you to”.


The Day The Earth Smiled

My friend Carolyn has this crazy idea for everyone to wave at her spacecraft on July 19. I’m crazy, and I’ll be waving and lifting a glass of Family Syrah in celebration.

Something great, something big, something very special that’s never happened before is about to happen! On July 19, 2013, the Cassini spacecraft, currently in orbit around Saturn, will be turned to image that planet and its entire ring system during an eclipse of the sun, as it has done twice before during its previous 9 years in orbit. But this time will be very different. This time, the images collected will capture, in natural color, a glimpse of our own planet alongside Saturn and its rings on a day that will be the first time the Earth’s inhabitants know in advance their picture is being taken from a billion miles away.

It will be a day to revel in the extraordinary achievements in the exploration of our solar system that have made such an interplanetary photo session possible. And it will be a day for all of us to smile and celebrate life on the Pale Blue Dot.

My fondest wish is that you, the people of the world, do exactly that.

I hope, at the appropriate time, regardless where or on which side of the planet you are, that you stop what you’re doing, go outside, gather together with friends and family, contemplate the utter isolation of our world in the never-ending blackness of space, relish its lush, life-sustaining beauty, appreciate the rarity it is among the Sun’s planets, and marvel at your own existence and that of all life on planet Earth.

And then, by all means, rejoice! Hoot and holler, twist and shout, raise a glass, make a toast, dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free, or celebrate in silence. Whatever it takes. But be sure to smile, knowing that others around the world are smiling too, in the sheer joy of simply being alive on a pale blue dot.

Carolyn Porco
Founder, The Day The Earth Smiled


Connection

While some would seek to divide us by physical borders, political ideology, caste identity, or religious moralism, in the larger reality there are no borders. We are all made of the identical stardust, subject to the same universal laws, and given the freedom to love unconditionally, or to define and defend our exclusions.

This video is another reminder of our very small community. When looking down at the pale blue planet, astronauts have described an overwhelming sense of fragile sacred unity. Here’s a musical offering to the greater reality of our planetary lives together — songwriter Ed Robertson in duet with I.S.S. astronaut Chris Hadfield, with live choir.

“You can’t make out borders from up here,
Just a spinning ball with a very tiny atmosphere.
All black and white just fades to gray,
Where the sun rises 16 times a day.
What once was fueled by fear,
now has 15 nations orbiting together here.
So sing your song, I’m listening.
Out where stars are glistening.
I can hear your voices bouncing off the moon.”

One astronaut said, “When we originally went to the moon, our total focus was on the moon. We weren’t thinking about looking back at the Earth. But now that we’ve done it, that may well have been the most important reason we went.” A twenty-minute documentary explores in stunning HD the “Overview Effect” experienced by astronauts. I would suggest that accelerations in global-virtual connection are creating a similar kind of social overview effect: re-wiring our “sense of place and being” from local-tribal to global-concurrent-participatory.

“We have to start acting like one species with one destiny. We are not going to survive if we don’t.”